The Weeknight (MS NOW), September 29, 2026
On the Sep 29, 2026 episode of The Weeknight, 8 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 5 | 29 | ✓ | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 4 | 21 | ✓ | 19%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption / Crook | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 2 | 42 | ✓ | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 27 | ✓ | 41%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-weeknight:2026-09-29:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-weeknight:2026-09-29:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP