Will Mark Kelly say “National Security”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “National Security” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 17, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jun 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Kelly
National Security
- Probability
- 55% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 3 episodes
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | National Security |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Mark Kelly say “National Security”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “National Security” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 17, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Kelly says “National Security” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP