Will Mark Kelly say “Republican”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Republican” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 13, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

53%from settlement history only · n=8counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=republican

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Mark Kelly

Republican

Probability
53% · n=8
Settled
4/8 (50%)
Last 3 episodes
said in 1 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Mark Kelly say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

2 counted; 20 by speakers the rule does not count.

Mark Kellyguest14:34In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Mark Kellyguest15:19In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Mark Kelly say during The Weeknight? · not said

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Mark Kelly say during Semafor World Economy 2026? · settled yes

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What will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview? · settled no

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What will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview? · settled no

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What will Senator Mark Kelly say during Jimmy Kimmel Live!? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 14, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes2
Sep 29, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Sep 21, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Jul 15, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jun 17, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Apr 15, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Mar 11, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 13, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Mark Kelly say “Republican”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Republican” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 13, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
What is the probability Mark Kelly says “Republican” next time?
53%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘Republican’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/republican (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=republican · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP