Will Mark Kelly say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Mark Kelly did not say “Tariff” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
36%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Kelly
Tariff
- Probability
- 36% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 3 episodes
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Mark Kelly say “Tariff”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Mark Kelly did not say “Tariff” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Kelly says “Tariff” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP