Will Donald Trump say “Fracking” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fracking” 3+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 9, 2024 (50%), most recently on Oct 9, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fracking 3+ times
- Probability
- 48% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2024 | Fracking 3+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Fracking 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fracking 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fracking” 3+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 9, 2024 (50%), most recently on Oct 9, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fracking 3+ times” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fracking 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fracking-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fracking%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP