Scott Bessent: Press conference, Aug 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during his press conference?
Polymarket What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Markets
35 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 70%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 69%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Asset | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cost / Price | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Evade / Evasion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Facilitator / Facilitate / Facilitates | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Network | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanction | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Secondary | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 76%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 70%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 64%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| GDP | No | 57%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Cut / Cut Tax | No | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Administration 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maximum Pressure | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President / Trump 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shadow | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economic D-Day / Economic Fury | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 42%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 37%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-scott-bessent-say-during-press-conference · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP