Donald Trump: Monthly window, Aug 31, 2026

By Aug 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

36 known appearances
25 of 36 known appearances transcribed Window: Aug 1, 2026 to Aug 31, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump. Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

20 words · 2 settled yes · our count agreed on 2 of 2

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Trump Derangement Syndrome Yes11✓67%n=18 from settlement history–
TrumpRX / TrumpRX Dot Gov Yes14✓59%n=2 from settlement history–
Trump Gulf / Gulf of Trump No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Trump Age / Age of Trump No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Trump Baby No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Trump Country No–3––new new word, no probability yet–
Trump Media No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Trump National / Trump International No–0–46%n=2 from settlement history–
Trump Kennedy Center / Trump-Kennedy Center No–0–46%n=2 from settlement history–
Trump Tariff / Trump Tax No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Trump Strait / Strait of Trump No–0–44%n=5 from settlement history–
Trump Heights No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Trump Plan No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Best of Trump No–0–43%n=3 from settlement history–
Trump Family No–1–41%n=2 from settlement history–
Trump Accord / Trump Peace No–0–39%n=2 from settlement history–
Trump Organization No–0–39%n=2 from settlement history–
Trump-Class / Trump Fleet No–0–39%n=2 from settlement history–
Trump Card / Trump Gold Card No–0–38%n=3 from settlement history–
Trump Tower No–0–36%n=3 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

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