Will Donald Trump say “Trump Strait / Strait of Trump”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trump Strait / Strait of Trump” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 26, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Trump Strait / Strait of Trump
- Probability
- 41% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…want to change the name of the straight of Hormones to the Trump Strait. And he called up, he said, "Sir, I've had it. I've…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Trump Strait / Strait of Trump |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Trump Strait / Strait of Trump |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 40 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Trump Strait / Strait of Trump | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Strait of Trump / Trump Strait | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Trump Strait / Strait of Trump | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Trump Strait / Strait of Trump | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Trump Strait / Strait of Trump”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trump Strait / Strait of Trump” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 26, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trump Strait / Strait of Trump” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trump Strait / Strait of Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/strait-of-trump-or-trump-strait (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=strait%20of%20trump%20%2F%20trump%20strait · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP