Will JD Vance say “Opportunity”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Opportunity” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 16, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Opportunity
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
That's a long time. There's a lot of opportunity there. And this job is so crazy. Look at this, guys. We're at the White House.…
…difference between blue and navy? Not that guy, because you give a speech whenever you ask a question. I'm going to give her an opportunity.
…I don't think it's what the Iranians want either. We have an opportunity here, I think, to reset the relationship that has existed between Iran…
…streets in the city after President Trump. It seems there is an opportunity here that may not come again. Will the United States stand by…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…a lot of good could come from a shutdown. So square that circle, which is it, a Democratic-caused crisis or a Republican opportunity for reform?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2025 | Opportunity |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Opportunity”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Opportunity” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 16, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Opportunity” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Opportunity’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/opportunity (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=opportunity · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP