Will JD Vance say “Military”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Military” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 16, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Military
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…energy crisis is because of the leadership of the president, but also because of the fine work of our military from Pete Hegseth on down.
…to keep falling further, given how low oil prices are. On the military side, the Iranians, for the second night in a row, did not…
…Now, what we did here is that we effectively degraded their conventional military capability. That has been done. That has been successfully done. You could…
…director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was kept out of the planning for the operations because of her past concerns about military involvement in Venezuela?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…and a speech that really is just oriented around returning the American military to the very high standards that it has had for virtually its…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2025 | Military |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Military”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Military” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 16, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Military” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Military’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/military (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=military · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP