# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-01-01 (settled) · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JAN01 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:27:38Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-01 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JAN01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	30	18	0.6	YYYnYYYnnn	0.81	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	35	22	0.63	YnnYYnYYYn	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Pelosi	pelosi	3	3	1	YYY	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Moscow	moscow	6	3	0.5	nYYnYn	0.63	hist	0	0	no	1
Gulf of America	gulf of america	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hunter	hunter	6	4	0.67	YnYnYY	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Turning Point	turning point	3	3	1	YYY	0.58	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	17	10	0.59	YnnYYnYYYn	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	26	11	0.42	nYYnYnnnnn	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
TrumpRX / TrumpRX.com	trumprx|trumprxcom	0	0			0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	10	4	0.4	YnnYYnYnnn	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Third Term	third term	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
UFC	ufc	8	4	0.5	nYYnnnYY	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	6	2	0.33	YYnnnn	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	36	18	0.5	YYYYnnYYYn	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	15	4	0.27	YYnnnnnnnn	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Nine War	nine war	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Taylor Swift	taylor swift	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Stimulus	stimulus	3	0	0	nnn	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	220	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	53	10	0.19	nnnnnnnnYY	0.31	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	18	2	0.11	nnnnnnnnYn	0.19	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fat Slob	fat slob	0	0			0.52	prior	0	0	no	1
Filibuster	filibuster	0	0			0.52	prior	0	0	yes	1