# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-29 · 23 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT29 · as_of 2026-10-25T05:57:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-29 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT29 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Reception and Dinner with Business Leaders in Japan on October 28th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	82	66	0.8	YYnYYYYnnn	0.77	hist	yes
China	china	47	40	0.85	YYnYYYYYYY	0.74	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	47	37	0.79	YYYYYYYYnn	0.74	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	24	17	0.71	YnYnYYnYYn	0.64	hist	no
Election	election	20	14	0.7	nYYYnYYYnn	0.64	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.59	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	41	25	0.61	YYnYnYnYnY	0.59	hist	yes
Border	border	46	30	0.65	YnnYYnYYnn	0.58	hist	yes
Disaster	disaster	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.57	hist	no
Shinzo / Abe	abe|shinzo	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	yes
Drug	drug	15	8	0.53	YYYnnYYnnn	0.52	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	28	17	0.61	nnnYnYYYYn	0.49	hist	yes
Kim / Jong Un	jong un|kim	0	0			0.44	hist	no
Manufacturing	manufacturing	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.42	hist	yes
Car / Truck	car|truck	0	0			0.41	hist	yes
Pipeline	pipeline	8	3	0.38	YnnYYnnn	0.4	hist	yes
Putin	putin	49	30	0.61	nnnnYYYnnn	0.39	hist	yes
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	9	3	0.33	nYnnYYnnn	0.38	hist	yes
Nippon	nippon	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.37	hist	no
Investment	investment	14	5	0.36	YYnnnnYnnn	0.35	hist	yes
Toyota	toyota	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	yes
Ambassador	ambassador	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Stock Market	stock market	0	0			0.42	prior	yes