Will Donald Trump say “Ambassador”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ambassador” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ambassador
- Probability
- 51% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Mr. Secretary general, First Lady of the United States, distinguished delegates, ambassadors, and fellow leaders.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Ambassador |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Ambassador |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ambassador”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ambassador” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 17, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ambassador” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ambassador’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ambassador (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ambassador · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP