Will Donald Trump say “Soccer”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Soccer” at 3 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 28, 2025 (23%), most recently on Mar 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 9 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Soccer
- Probability
- 25% · n=13
- Settled
- 3/13 (23%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Soccer |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Soccer | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Soccer | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Soccer | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Soccer | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Soccer | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Soccer | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Soccer | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Soccer |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Soccer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Soccer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Soccer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Soccer | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Soccer”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Soccer” at 3 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 28, 2025 (23%), most recently on Mar 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Soccer” next time?
- 25%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Soccer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/soccer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=soccer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP