# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · tv_episode 2025-11-22 · 20 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV22 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:34:06Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-22 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of The Brian Kilmeade Radio Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Biden	biden	109	84	0.77	YYYnnYYYnY	0.68	yes
Tariff	tariff	67	51	0.76	YYnnnnYYYY	0.65	no
China	china	70	54	0.77	YnnnnYnYYY	0.64	no
Trillion	trillion	27	20	0.74	YYYnnYYYYY	0.63	yes
Economy	economy	15	10	0.67	YYnYYYYYnY	0.54	yes
Election	election	39	24	0.62	YnnnnYnYYY	0.53	yes
Investment	investment	38	20	0.53	nYnnnnYYYY	0.5	no
Hottest	hottest	75	39	0.52	nnnnYYYYYn	0.48	no
Turkey	turkey	2	1	0.5	nY	0.46	no
Radical Left	radical left	23	12	0.52	nYYnnnnnnY	0.45	no
Disaster	disaster	18	9	0.5	nYYnYnYnnY	0.45	no
Cartel	cartel	1	1	1	Y	0.44	no
Inflation	inflation	18	9	0.5	YYnnnYnYnY	0.43	no
Hoax	hoax	12	5	0.42	nYnnnYYYnn	0.43	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	2	1	0.5	nY	0.41	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	54	20	0.37	nnnnnnYnnn	0.37	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	26	10	0.38	nnnnYnnnnn	0.33	no
New York / Mayor	mayor|new york	2	0	0	nn	0.33	yes
Epstein	epstein	36	5	0.14	nnnnYYnnnn	0.28	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	191	18	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.2	no