# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-07-22 · 34 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL22 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-philippines-president-events-on-july-22 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:07:51Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-07-22 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of his speech during the "Winning the AI Race" event on July 23, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-philippines-president-events-on-july-22 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at these events.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	36	28	0.78	YnnnYYYYYY	0.67	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	23	20	0.87	YYYYYYYnYY	0.64	hist	yes
Energy	energy	1	K	7	5	0.71	nYnYYYY	0.57	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	20	14	0.7	YYYnYnYYnY	0.57	hist	yes
President Xi	president xi	1	KP	3	3	1	YYY	0.53	hist	yes
Plant	plant	1	K	2	2	1	YY	0.51	hist	yes
Fed / Powell	fed|powell	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.5	hist	yes
Autopen	autopen	1	K	7	4	0.57	YnYnYnY	0.5	hist	yes
Biden 5+ times	biden#5	5	P	0	0			0.5	hist	yes
Bitcoin	bitcoin	1	K	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.47	hist	no
Obama	obama	1	P	7	4	0.57	YYnnnYY	0.45	hist	yes
Epstein	epstein	1	K	10	1	0.1	nnnnnnnnnY	0.42	hist	no
Ethereum	ethereum	1	K	3	0	0	nnn	0.42	hist	no
NVIDIA	nvidia	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.4	hist	yes
Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times	billion|million|trillion#10	10	P	7	3	0.43	nYnYYnn	0.39	hist	yes
Tariff 5+ times	tariff#5	5	P	9	3	0.33	nnnYYnnYn	0.38	hist	no
Rare Earth	rare earth	1	K	3	0	0	nnn	0.37	hist	no
North Korea / Taiwan	north korea|taiwan	1	P	0	0			0.36	hist	no
Copper	copper	1	P	2	0	0	nn	0.34	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	P	15	4	0.27	YYnnnYnnYn	0.33	hist	no
Drone	drone	1	K	8	1	0.12	Ynnnnnnn	0.33	hist	no
Crypto / Cryptocurrency	crypto|cryptocurrency	1	K	0	0			0.18	hist	no
All-In	all in	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
AMD	amd	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Chamath / Palihapitiya	chamath|palihapitiya	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Clarity	clarity	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Electric	electric	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
GENIUS Act	genius act	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Innovation	innovation	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Palantir	palantir	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Revolution	revolution	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Robot / Robotic	robot|robotic	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Sacks	sack	1	K	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Surplus	surplus	1	P	0	0			0.39	prior	no