Will Donald Trump say “Civil War”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Civil War” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
35%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Civil War
- Probability
- 35% · n=5
- Settled
- 0/5 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Civil War”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Civil War” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Civil War” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Civil War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/civil-war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=civil%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP