Will Jerome Powell say “Productivity”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Productivity” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 2, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Productivity
- Probability
- 38% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…growth forecast by a tenth, and I think that’s probably to do with just growing confidence in productivity. But so—sorry, and your second question was?
…wave after wave, there will be some disruption, but ultimately technology increases productivity, which is the basis for rising wages. And it may not all…
So it is—the implication is obviously higher productivity. And some of that may be AI. It just—also, I think productivity has just been almost structurally…
…to be a lot of investment and that’s going to drive higher productivity and that sort of things. I don’t know how those investments will…
…to affect the labor market in terms of lower labor demand, higher productivity by contrast. Do you buy that? And if that is true, does…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Productivity |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Productivity | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Productivity | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Productivity”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Productivity” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 2, 2025 (33%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Productivity” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Productivity’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/productivity (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=productivity · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP