Will Jerome Powell say “Inflation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Inflation” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 16, 2025 (43%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Inflation
- Probability
- 31% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up and is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase…
…low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate…
…remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals, today the Federal Open…
…available public- and private-sector data suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in October. Conditions in the…
…data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September. Conditions in the…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Inflation”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Inflation” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 16, 2025 (43%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Inflation” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Inflation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/inflation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=inflation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP