Will Jerome Powell say “Risk”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Risk” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 25, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Risk
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
…East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. We will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate. And I’ll have more to…
…based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make…
…In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to…
…In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Risk |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Risk”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Risk” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 25, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Risk” next time?
- 24%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Risk’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/risk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=risk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP