Will Jerome Powell say “Rate”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Rate” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 25, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 2, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 22% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Rate
- Probability
- 22% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up and…
…at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.…
…on a firm footing. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. In…
…today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point. As a separate matter, we also decided to…
…today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point. We also decided to conclude the reduction of…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Rate”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Rate” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 25, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 2, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Rate” next time?
- 22%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Rate’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/rate (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=rate · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP