Will Jerome Powell say “Mortgage”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Mortgage” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 25, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 16% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Mortgage
- Probability
- 16% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…You know, housing supply is low. Many people have very, very low-rate mortgages from the pandemic period, and they kept refinancing and caught the really…
…is that the size of the balance sheet is frozen, and as mortgage-backed securities mature, we’ll reinvest those in Treasury bills, which will foster both…
…a bit, and as that happens we don’t set the—we don’t set mortgage rates, but our policy rate changes do tend to affect mortgage rates.
…housing is a—is a special case. Right? Our—we don’t set—we don’t set mortgage rates at the Fed, right? We set an overnight rate, and the…
…that—I think consumers—right?—were looking for relief on rates when it comes to mortgages—car loans. Small businesses want to take out more manageable loans. When you…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Mortgage”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Mortgage” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 25, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Mortgage” next time?
- 16%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Mortgage’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/mortgage (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=mortgage · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP