Will Jerome Powell say “Basel”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Basel” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 25, 2025 (50%), most recently on Mar 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Basel
- Probability
- 44% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…system was about right. As the Fed moves forward with a revised Basel proposal, potentially changes to the G-SIB surcharge, has that changed at all?…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Basel”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Basel” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 25, 2025 (50%), most recently on Mar 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Basel” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Basel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/basel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=basel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP