Zohran Mamdani: Speech, Jul 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his America 250 Address?
Markets
21 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | Yes | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 28%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Muslim / Islam | Yes | 22%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Five Borough | No | 77%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 59%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 56%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | 53%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | No | 50%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | No | 42%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | No | 41%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Knicks | No | 41%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | No | 35%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery | No | 34%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 32%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 31%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Equality / Inequality | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Albany | No | 22%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 20%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 16%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26JUL02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP