What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “ICE” next time?

41%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “ICE”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “ICE” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “ICE” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 6, 2025 (43%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No keynotes among them yet.

41%from settlement history only · n=14Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no no yes no no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 45¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 03:36 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

ICE

Probability: 41% · n=14
Settled: 6/14 (43%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…cut the Medicaid budget in half. He wants to work closer with ICE. He looks at a program like universal childcare and says that it's…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…the anger that New Yorkers are feeling, it begins with the horrific ICE shooting of Oscar Belgal on Thursday afternoon. Again, this is a shooting…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Holds Press Conference on Ice Shooting in Marble Hill · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…everyone. Around 4 p.m. this afternoon, a New Yorker was shot by ICE agents in Marble Hill. Many of the facts surrounding this shooting are…