What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Election” next time?

30%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Election”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Election” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Election” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 20, 2025 (38%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No keynotes among them yet.

30%from settlement history only · n=8Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes no yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 43¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 10:07 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Election

Probability: 30% · n=8
Settled: 3/8 (38%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…so, we're hopeful, and yet we also know that hope doesn't win elections, the action that it motivates does and we look forward to that.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

So, can you describe to us, as you see it, the stakes in this election, the gubernatorial election, the stakes for New York City?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

That is what Bruce Blakeman would like New Yorkers to think this election is about. What the election is about is, how can we make…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Appears on Univision's ¡Despierta América! · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…I'm hopeful for Democrats across the country, but hope doesn't win the elections on its own. Everyone has to do everything that they can to…