What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Albany” next time?

16%, from settlement history (n=20). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Albany”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Albany” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Albany” at 3 of 20 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (15%), most recently on May 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 16% (n=20, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

16%from settlement history only · n=20counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 10 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 16:37 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Albany

Probability: 16% · n=20
Settled: 3/20 (15%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Assembly Member Maritza DavilaotherMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…that, you know, he used to sit in front of me in Albany. Always a bright young man. But I just want to say thank…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

I think, honestly, so much of the time, typically, in Albany is spent trying to figure out if there's an agreement as to what the…