What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Eric / Adams” next time?

35%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Eric / Adams”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Eric / Adams” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Eric / Adams” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 6, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

35%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no
Streak: not said the last 3 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 08:09 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Eric / Adams

Probability: 35% · n=5
Settled: 2/5 (40%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

Now, as I've reported, there was a deal that the Adams administration put together late last year. It fell apart in the summer, and you've…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…five years ago, I attended a similar press conference with former Mayor Adams and Brad Lander, where they joined and talked about how they were…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.