What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Immigrant” next time?

38%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Immigrant”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Immigrant” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Immigrant” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 6, 2025 (43%), most recently on Nov 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No keynotes among them yet.

38%from settlement history only · n=7Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 27¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 01:28 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Immigrant

Probability: 38% · n=7
Settled: 3/7 (43%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Comptroller LevineotherMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

The providers are overwhelmingly immigrants and low-income themselves and struggling now. And this expansion will give them more students and will give them larger contracts…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…a broader review of what more the city can do to protect immigrant New Yorkers across the five boroughs. Because I can tell you people…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Holds Press Conference on Ice Shooting in Marble Hill · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…of our city, but as someone who is proud to be an immigrant in our city. And I know that these kinds of raids, this…