What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Civic” next time?

30%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Civic”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Civic” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Civic” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

30%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 18:36 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Civic

Probability: 30% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

I think that we have a civic responsibility to ensure that we are not leaving anybody out to dry. And that, to me, is why…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

Today, we add one more groundbreaking chapter to that story of speed as we celebrate a new feat of civic agility: expedited discretionary grant funding.