Donald Trump: Press conference, Feb 24, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at the 2pm press conference with Macron on Feb 24, 2025?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Macron presser today?
Markets
37 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Zelensky | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 57%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cathedral | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| US / United States 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Notre Dame | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trade/Deficit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Apple | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bernard / Arnault | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| France 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Martial Law | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| French fries | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dan/Bongino | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| De Gaulle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Electric cars / EV / Electric vechicles | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Freedom Fries | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Friedrich/Merz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| G7/G-7 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Germany | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hostage | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lafayette | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marine/Le Pen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Migration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wine / Champagne | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 16%n=60 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTFRENCHREP-25FEB24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP