Will Donald Trump say “French fries”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “French fries” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 21, 2024 (50%), most recently on Oct 26, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
French fries
- Probability
- 41% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2025 | French fries |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 26, 2024 | French Fries |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 22, 2024 | French fries | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 21, 2024 | French fries | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “French fries”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “French fries” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 21, 2024 (50%), most recently on Oct 26, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “French fries” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘French fries’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/french-fry (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=french%20fry · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP