What is the probability Donald Trump says “Marine/Le Pen” next time?

41%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Donald Trump say “Marine/Le Pen”?

Name: Donald Trump: “Marine/Le Pen” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Marine/Le Pen” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 24, 2025.

Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 21:28 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Marine/Le Pen

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 2 press conferences: said in 0 of 2

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 23:57In transcript

…president, they give you the best pilots in the United States Air Force/marines. The best. So that's one of the advantages. They definitely have good…

The PressreporterDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:07:02In transcript

Given the riots in France, are you planning to endorse Marine Le Pen for the presidential election next year.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Feb 24, 2025	Marine/Le Pen	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Marine/Le Pen”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Marine/Le Pen” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 24, 2025.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Marine/Le Pen” next time?: 41%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Marine/Le Pen’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/le-pen-or-marine (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=le%20pen%20%2F%20marine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP