Will Donald Trump say “Trade/Deficit”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trade/Deficit” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 13, 2025 (50%), most recently on Feb 13, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Trade/Deficit
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…cuz yours is going to go down. They gave us the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across…
…in American history, the highest energy prices in American history, the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across…
…the challenges that you have systemically tackled and solved, whether it's the trade deficit, where we were getting ripped off by foreign countries, whether it's…
…history. And by the way, this is two years ago, the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across…
Absolutely, a tremendous difference. Yeah, we're looking at it very closely, the deficit. And you know, I'm cutting back the deficit with these countries where…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2025 | Trade/Deficit |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Trade / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Trade/Deficit”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trade/Deficit” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 13, 2025 (50%), most recently on Feb 13, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trade/Deficit” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trade/Deficit’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deficit-or-trade (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deficit%20%2F%20trade · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP