Remarks #2 transcript, Jun 24, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Jun 24, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 24 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 23 of 24 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
24 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 23 of 24- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | Yes | 13 | 15 | ✓ | 61%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 53%n=164 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 56%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 45%n=262 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Socialist | Yes | 5 | 7 | ✓ | 43%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 52%n=280 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 41%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 27%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Lebanon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 41%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Arctic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GDP | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ally | No | 0 | 8 | ✓ | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium / Dust | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 29%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 26%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 17%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 3%n=409 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
361 passages · part 2 of 3Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
I mean, I wouldn't have gone for, you know, what we went through over the last 2 months with, you know, the various countries.
But you're probably right—I would have gone for you. But I would have—I would have not gone for most people. But he called me up. He said: "Please, I have it in Turkey. You've got to be there. The United States has to be there." And so I'm going out of respect to President Erdoğan.
What do you want the allies—what do you want the allies to do, more than what they are doing right now? Do you have an ask?
Just be loyal. I just want their loyalty. We don't need their money. We don't need anything. We have the most powerful military in the world by far, but I just want loyalty. You know, we're so loyal to them. We're always fighting for them. We have thousands of troops all over Europe.
Yes.
In Germany, we have 50,000 troops, and then you want a little—give us a little nudge, give us a little kiss. We don't want much. And they say, "No, we can't do it."
We're paying hundreds of millions of dollars for the troops that we have in Germany, the troops that we have in U.K., the troops that we have all over Europe.
I will say, Poland was very good. You know, I endorsed him, and he won.
By the way, many people that I endorse outside of the United States won. You know that, right?
Of course.
Do you know we had a big win yesterday with Colombia? A favorite place of Marco. Marco loves Colombia. [ Laughter ]
But no, I endorsed a man who was—you know, at the end.
Yes. Yes.
And he won. But the same thing in Poland. He was number 10.
Karol Nawrocki.
I endorsed him. I didn't like the man that was the President at all. And I endorsed him. He was a fighter—a big fighter, a good fighter—and I endorsed him. He came from 10th place and he won, and they say it was the biggest upset in Europe in 50 years for a major election.
And you know what? He's a—he's going to be a great President of Poland. But we have many people—South America.
But we just—just the other day we endorsed somebody that—"El Tigre." They call him "El Tigre" because he's tough. He's another fighter. I like fighters, I guess.
But——
Mr. President, you like winners.
But he won, and it's great.
Mr. President, you like winners. Do you think President Zelenskyy is winning right now? You famously called him a loser.
Well, he's doing pretty well. Look, no matter how you look at it——
Absolutely.
——he's doing pretty well. He's holding his own, at least. A lot of people dying on both sides. But I think he's doing pretty well. You've got to hand it to him.
Can I ask you—can I ask——
Look, you have to—you have to say: He's courageous, he's got great equipment, but he's got great men. He's got fighters.
And can I ask you one other question?
Yes.
Have you seen the report into the Minab school attack, sir? And can you tell us, sir——
I have not seen it, no.
Why not?
At some point—well, I have to——
It's been published.
I have to wait for it to be complete.
It's been completed.
I don't know that they're ever going to solve that problem. And you could ask Pete, but I don't know that they're ever—they're say—they're going to say it was one of our missiles. Pete, I don't know that they're ever going to solve that problem in terms of whose fault was it, because there were missiles flying all over the place.
So you won't accept——
And it's horrible what happened. But there were missiles fire—flying all over the place. And somebody said it was our missile. Well, maybe it wasn't our missile, but I've seen nothing to lead me to believe it was. There were plenty of missiles being flown by other people.
What do you think, Pete?
Well, Mr. President, we've taken the investigation very seriously, and when the appropriate time is right, whatever that outcome is, that will be the time to divulge.
And do you know what the results of the investigation is?
I mean, if you come up with the right answer, I don't—I don't think it's going to be us. I don't think it was us. There were a lot of missiles being fired at that time.
Yes, please.
Mr. President, you just had a colorful lunch on the Senate——
I did.
in the Senate. Would you be open to a compromise measure that had provisions of the SAVE Act into a reconciliation bill?
Not really, no. The SAVE Act should be—there's no compromise. It's voter ID, it's proof of citizenship, and it's also the mail-in ballots. We want mail-in ballots for the military, if they're away. We want them for people that are ill or people that are, in some form, handicapped or have a hard time, or people even that are on vacation. I'm open to that.
But mail-in ballots, you have to vote, because we have a lot of rigged elections.
And would you be—[ inaudible ]—housing bill if——
And then we added in men in women's sports is a no-no. No men in women's sports and no transgender mutilization of our children.
Would you——
These are 99 percent issues. And we have to do it. We have to protect—look at what's gone on in Los Angeles and California. The vote still hasn't been counted. What's it—2 weeks now? It still hasn't been counted.
And I don't know Spencer Pratt, but I watched him, and he was doing really nicely. All of a sudden, he's out. And I said he was going to be out because he was doing well, and then, a week later, they started saying: "Oh, he's starting to lose favor. He's starting to lose." I said, "They just rigged the election."
And they were going to do that with Steve Hilton. He's a good man. And I asked the U.S. attorney to go look at their votes, and as soon as I did that, they announced that Steve Hilton would be a finalist.
So, no, we have rigged elections. Now, in my case, I made it too big to rig. Remember the expression "too big to rig"? But we have rigged—and we have to have voter ID. If we don't have voter ID and proof of citizenship—but basically, it's "The SAVE America Act." Everybody wants it. Everybody is—including Democrats. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats want it. Not the leaders, because they want to cheat. Their policy is so bad, they're unelectable.
Mr. President, the housing bill, if it came to your desk, sir, would you veto it?
About what?
If the housing bill that you didn't sign today, if it came to your desk——
No, I said I'm not signing the housing bill. I want to see what happens with SAVE. Look, the housing bill is—housing—I made billions of dollars with housing. I know housing better than anybody maybe anywhere. It's all about the interest rate. Lower the interest rates. You're going to have all the housing you want.
But you have to understand, I don't want to have—I don't want to hurt people that own houses too. These people, for the first time in their lives, they have valuable houses. They become rich. I don't want to hurt them either.
Sir——
What you want to do is what—good for everyone: Get the interest rates down. We have this numbskull that was the head of the Fed before, and he's a stupid person. And we call him "Too Late" because he was too late with the interest rates all the time.
We need low interest rates. Low interest rates will solve everything, will solve that.
Now, despite that, we're doing well with housing. But where we're really doing well is, oil is plummeting and costs are coming down. Affordability—we're doing great. The Democrats gave us a tremendous affordability problem, and we're reducing prices a lot.
Our new Prime Minister will be installed in a matter of weeks.
Yes.
Could be 3 or 4 weeks. Would you want to be the first person on his list to visit globally?
No.
Why?
But I think we're probably of a different persuasion. He's very liberal. But you know, I got along well with Starmer. I disagreed with Starmer. I said you have two problems: immigration and energy—and crime too, by the way. Crime.
You have a terrible mayor of London, by the way. I don't want to cause any problems, but your mayor of London is grossly incompetent, a bad person, and a horrible representative for your country. You know that. That's why you're smiling and laughing. It's true. But you know that. The mayor of London is a horror show.
But you have a crime problem. You have an immigration problem. The immigration helps cause the crime, by the way. And you have a tremendous energy problem. You're building stupid windmills all over the country, and they don't do the job. You have the greatest oil field in the world, one of them. It's called the North Sea oil. All you have to do is bid it out to Exxon, Chevron, Shell, British Petroleum. They're begging to go there and pay billions of dollars.
And because the left is so crazy, they don't want the money. And the country is losing. I mean, it's going to go—your country is going to go bankrupt.
Think of it. You have one of the—now, most countries don't have that. You have the North Sea oil, and you have the best part of it. Think of it: You go to Norway, who doesn't have the best part of it, and you give them—and they have $2 trillion in the bank. You know they have $2 trillion, maybe more, because the U.K. pays them all this money—and others.
But you have one of the greatest fields. And I told this guy 15 times, and he wouldn't do it. I said, "You're going to lose your Prime Ministership," and he did. In fact, I called it about 3 days early. Right? Remember I said he was leaving? I wonder if that nudged him out. [ Laughter ]
Would you block a final Iran deal if they include any kind of fees on shipping or maritime——
Yes, no, I wouldn't——
activity in the Strait of Hormuz?
——it would be unacceptable to me, because we have numerous straits, and if you did that for them, you'd have to do it for other people. You have other straits. I wouldn't allow it there either. Yes, it would—it would be a game changer.
And have you made progress on munitions building in Europe? That's obviously something you brought up at the G–7.
Yes, we always make progress. Some of the countries that he represents aren't as good as him. He's great. They're lucky they have him.
Thank you.
They're lucky they have that guy.
And the production——
Right behind you.
Mr. President, how do you think that Congress voting to end the war with Iran, even in a non-binding way, impacts your negotiations with Iran?
So we're doing great in our negotiations with Iran. Right in the middle of one of the key things—which we're going to get anyway; we got—we have breaking news: The Senate has voted that they'd like Trump to stop the war. So Iran sees that, and they go, "What's that all about?"
Now, you know it's meaningless, right? But I had lunch with them. We had four Republican Senators and all Democrats. You know, Democrats—they want to lose the war because they're stupid. That's why we call them "Dumocrats."
You know, I no longer use the "e." I use—I've changed the "e" into a "u." We call them "Dumocrats." They're dumb. Their policy is so bad.
That's why they have to—they are opposed to the SAVE America Act because they don't want voter ID, they don't want proof of citizenship. You know why? Because they have to cheat. Their policy is so bad that if they don't cheat, they wouldn't win an election. They're phenomenal cheaters, and they stick together.
But you know, the people—the Democrat people are 87 percent in favor of the SAVE America Act.
Yes, please.
Mr. President, last night, of course, you know, the Speaker pointed out, we saw the Mamdani-backed candidates winning in Jeffries's and Schumer's backyard.
Yes.
You told me in October that Schumer was "gone-zo" and that Mamdani was the leader of the party. Does—do last night's results——
I did.
confirm that assessment? And——
Well, Schumer has lost his way. He's become, essentially, a Palestinian. I think it's the greatest transformation of a political position I've ever seen. Chuck Schumer, who was a strong supporter of Israel, and he's become 100-percent Palestinian.
In fact, I've asked for a beautiful, beautiful silk outfit to be sent in the Palestinian tradition. I'm going to send it to him as a birthday present.
No, it's the greatest transformation of a political ideology I've ever seen. Chuck Schumer is Jewish, and he was a strong supporter of Israel. Not that strong, because he let the Obama—even though he was opposed to it, he let the JCPOA get through. He could have fought that harder with Barack Hussein Obama. Have you heard of him?
So—but Chuck Schumer is a Palestinian now. Sad.
Yes, please.
Do Democrats have a problem on their hands now that, you know, Obama and Mamdani—their two true leaders—neither of them can run for President in '28?
Well, you know, Mamdani was here, as you know, twice. And he's a very nice guy. He's a charming guy, good-looking guy. We talked. We talked.
But you can't raise taxes on people where you force them to leave your State or your city. And they're leaving, and they're going to Florida. Most of them are going down to Palm Beach and Miami. They're just leaving. And they pay 90 percent of your taxes. And I keep wondering, "How are you going to do this?" Every day you read about somebody that's leaving for Florida—mostly Florida and other places, but they're leaving.
You can't put estate taxes on that are so high that when a loving father or mother dies and they leave it to their beautiful child, the child is supposed to pay 50-percent tax. That's on top of Federal tax, right? So, basically, you're leaving them nothing.
You—what you're doing is, you're just for—I mean, you can be liberal; you can be anything. It's common sense. You're forcing people to leave, and these are the people that pay the taxes. They pay 90 percent of the taxes, and they're leaving New York, and they're leaving California too.
Yes, please.
Thank you very much, Mr. President. You said yes to the jet engines, but you're a very direct, very straightforward, no-nonsense man, as you're known in Turkey as well. What needs to happen for the F–35 deal to be finalized? What do you need to see to happen?
Why don't you answer that question, J.D.? I want to give you an easy one. That's an easy——
[ Laughter ] Okay. Thank you, sir.
He's done a great job over there, by the way.
[ Laughter ] Well, I know that Pete and the entire team are reviewing this right now because there are certain things that we have to certify have happened—that have happened, in order to comply with American law. The President has asked us to do that. We are running the traps and confirming that's happened. This is really a congressional thing and ensuring that Turkey has complied with American law so they can get the F–35s. And of course, we'll announce that when we have that——
We're going to work on it.
——that review is complete.
So it's progressing.
Yes, we're going to work.
Look, hey, he's a man who's a little controversial, but I am too. But I know him. I think he's a very good person. He's helped us a lot. He's been—he really—anytime I've help—like, as an example, I said I'd love you to stay out of the war with Iran. That's a natural for him, right? He stayed out.
I like him. A lot of times when they have a problem with Erdoğan, they call me, and they say, "Would you talk to him?" They'll call me——
[ Laughter ] It's true. It's true.
——they'll say, "Could you do me a favor and talk to him?"
You have a question in the back? No, yes, in the back.
I love your questions, but you've asked a lot of them.
Thank you. Thank you, Mr. President.
But you're very nice. I appreciate it.
Thank you, Mr. President. Earlier today, you instructed your Department of Justice to do an investigation for oil companies that you said gas prices were not coming down quick enough——
Yes. That's right.
and you are concerned that there is price gouging going on, taking advantage of the crisis, sir. Can you elaborate on that?
So it's ExxonMobil, it's Chevron, it's Shell, it's BP—it's a lot of them. The gasoline or the oil prices have come down so much, and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison to what it should be. We should be, in my opinion, at $2.25 right now at the pump, and we're higher than that. And we are doing a big investigation on it. Yes. They are not reducing the prices commensurate with what's happening.
Look, we are sending out—think of it—19 million barrels came out yesterday. That is a flood. That's like a gusher. That's an oil gusher. And they should be much lower, the gasoline prices, which really is what people see more than anything else, but the—you know, for their car. But the gasoline prices should be much lower at the pump, and the oil companies are possibly gouging. I hope they're not. Otherwise, they're going to be in big trouble. They're going to be in big trouble. We're not going to play games.
Mr. President, have you spoken to them, sir? Have you spoken to the oil——
I have. Yes.
today about this?
I told them—I told them: Don't gouge our people.
Mr. President, there's a report that you're going to present the World Cup at the final—like, the final.
I am. I—well, I've been asked to by soccer, by football, by Gianni. Gianni has done a great job.
By the way, how hot has this thing—[ inaudible ]——
And the Dutch are doing—and the Dutch are doing very well. Have you seen?
How hot is—you're doing well, and we're doing well.
Doing very well.
Maybe we'll play you in the finals.
Well, it's——
Yes.
It's been great. You know, they came to the United States, which isn't a big—a big, as they would say, football, but we can't because it's too confusing. We say "soccer." But it's not a—you know, very big at that.
And this is the biggest they've ever had. They've never had anything like it. The numbers are bigger than any number.
It's huge. Yes. It's very big.
And it's—there's great spirit. There's tremendous spirit.
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