White House press briefing transcript, May 5, 2026 (Rubio)
At the White House press briefing on May 5, 2026, Marco Rubio said 32 of the 49 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 49 settlements. Full transcript below (The White House on YouTube, public domain).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
UpdatedMarkets
49 words · 32 settled yes · our count agreed on 49 of 49- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 58 | 75 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War / Iran 3+ times | Yes | 51 | 68 | ✓ | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| President / Trump 30+ times | Yes | 36 | 53 | ✓ | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| President / Trump 10+ times | Yes | 36 | 53 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear / Ballistic | Yes | 24 | 29 | ✓ | 64%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 24 | 29 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Regime / Administration 5+ times | Yes | 19 | 21 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thing 7+ times | Yes | 16 | 21 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 14 | 18 | ✓ | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 14 | 18 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 13 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockade / Embargo | Yes | 13 | 16 | ✓ | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Havana | Yes | 12 | 16 | ✓ | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 11 | 12 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 9 | 10 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 8 | 11 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pope / Vatican | Yes | 7 | 14 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congress | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Toll | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| House / Senate | Yes | 3 | 6 | ✓ | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical / Clerical | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DJ / DJing | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 17 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Diplomacy | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Xi | Yes | 1 | 13 | ✓ | 40%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| EU / Europe | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Maduro | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 4 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Argue / Speculate 5+ times | No | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Embargo | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spirit Airlines | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballroom | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 5+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fuck Around / Find out / FAFO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Interview | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pentagon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soviet Union | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| To the Table | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Baby / Wedding | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
171 passages · part 2 of 2Speaker-labelled captions · The White House (YouTube), public domain · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
Not only is that unacceptable in the Straits, you're creating a precedent that could be repeated in multiple other places around the world. The whole world should join us in this condemnation, and the whole world should join us in doing something about it, by the way. It shouldn't just be us. We're hoping to get countries. We're going to give them a chance to do something about it at the United Nations. All right. This is my last question. All right, that lady in the -- right there, in the white.
Thank you, Mr. Secretary.
Well -- OK. Hold on. Stop, stop, stop. Go ahead. OK. I'll do two more and then I got to go. You, in the black. Yeah, go ahead. Iran has shown what?
Sophia with Politico.
OK.
Iran has shown that it's been able to withstand a lot of pressure and yesterday, President Trump has said that they may run out of oil storage in two weeks. Do you believe that that will be the thing that gets them to the table to give up their nuclear ambitions? And if not, what will be that thing?
Well, look, they're suffering devastating damage to their economy. You're right, but it's not that they're able to withstand pressures, it's that they don't care that their people are suffering. You understand, right? There's a difference between we can withstand pressure and we actually don't care. Now, I think there are people in their system that care more than others. Some of the elected people that you see, some of the people you see on television with suits on, those guys care because they know at the end of the day, they have to live in the reality. And then you have an element of their government, the clerical, the clerics, the IRGC types, who probably are more immune to that and care less. They're more interested in regime survival at all costs. But ultimately, the pressure points are what they are.
Are they more divided now than they were before? Because the administration has said that the Iranian regime is divided, making it very challenging.
Well, it's been challenging to deal with them diplomatically because, for example, an offer will be made, and then it takes five or six days to get a response because you have to get it through the whole system, they have to find the supreme leader, wherever he hides, they've got to get him to sign off and that's their system. Their system has always been multi-layered in this way. It's obviously become more complex because of the damage they suffered during the war. But look, suffice it to say, Iran has to pay a price. They're not going to change their position out of the kindness of their heart. There has to be a pressure point on them that causes them to realize they cannot continue to close the Straits or they face crushing economic consequences.
But also global diplomatic isolation, which they have proven in the past to be susceptible to. But you're right, they have a high pain threshold, but they don't have an unlimited pain threshold, nobody does. All right, this has to be the last question. Go ahead.
Thank you, Mr. Secretary. Many people want to know what is your DJ name?
My DJ name?
Your DJ name.
You're not ready for my DJ name.
On the war, if the fighting were to resume, because you've said that Operation Epic Fury is over, the president also said that the US would bomb them off the face of the earth if they tried to go after US ships. So, if the fighting resumes, are you saying that it would resume under Project Freedom? And I ask as it relates to the War Powers Act.
Yeah, look, Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation. I'm not going to -- we're not cheering for an additional situation to occur; we would prefer the path of peace. What the president would prefer is a deal. He would prefer to sit down, work out a memorandum of understanding for future negotiations that touches on all the key topics that have to be addressed, a full opening of the Strait so the world can get back to normal. And he preferred that be negotiated through the route that Steve and Jared have been working and that all of us have been supporting. That's the route he prefers. That is, so far, not the route that Iran has chosen.
And so, the result has been that the United States has to do something about the fact that we're the only nation on earth that can do anything to open up a lane within the Straits of Hormuz, to get product and to rescue these people that are trapped in there. And that's what we're undergoing now. What that may lead to in the future is speculative. I'm not going to speculate about what it would take or what it would do. But look, the message to Iran, these guys are facing -- they are facing real catastrophic destruction to their economy, generational destruction to their economy, generational destruction to the wealth of their country imposed on themselves by the actions that they're taking. They should check themselves before they wreck themselves in the direction that they're going.
Does the White House believe that these votes coming up in Congress are a moot point then?
Look, guys, I love talking about this topic, this is about the War Powers Act, OK? I love it. I was hoping somebody would ask. All right, hold on, hold on, no, no, you don't let me answer. I've got to answer the question, OK? And I love it, I'll tell you why I love it, because even as a Senator, I said something. The War Powers Act is unconstitutional, 100 percent. Now, this is not the position of me, it's not the position of the president United States now. This is the position of every single president that has occupied this position since the day that law passed. It's completely unconstitutional. Now, we comply with it in terms of like notification, because we want to preserve good relations with Congress, right, and we do that.
But even as a Senator, I would say that the War Powers Act is 100 percent unconstitutional. And look, I know some of you, whatever you want to say, but this is not this president's position; that has been the position of every single presidential administration since the day that law passed. It's an infringement on the president's constitutional powers. We don't acknowledge the law as constitutional; nonetheless, we comply with elements of it for purposes of maintaining good relations with Congress and we want them to be involved, and we want them to be informed. I have gone on Capitol Hill, I don't know, four times this year for all Senators and all House members and Intel Committee and Gang of Eight.
We want them to be involved in this. But I want to be clear on the point of the War Powers Act, it's unconstitutional. And every president and every administration has taken that position. All right, guys, I gave you 50 minutes. Thank you. Thank you, guys.
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