Will Marco Rubio say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Hormuz” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jun 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 77% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
Hormuz
- Probability
- 77% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 4 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…sure, but it's desperate and destructive, this blockade of the Straits of Hormuz nations from around the world, the overwhelming majority of whom are not…
…their ships and to restore freedom of navigation in the Straits of Hormuz and this critical artery of global trade. And so President Trump, as…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “Hormuz”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Hormuz” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jun 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “Hormuz” next time?
- 77%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP