Will “War / Iran” be said 3+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “War / Iran” was said 3+ times at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 5, 2026.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
War / Iran 3+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
The president also announced the Department of War has officially selected Cleveland, Ohio as the new home for the US Navy's Submarine Component Repair Center.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
I'd like to ask you about the Iran war and about Anthony Fauci. On the Iran war, Congressman Thomas Massie today introduced articles of impeachment…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…to remember why are we doing this. Number one, it's so that Iran never has a nuclear weapon. And number two, what we're doing right…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…you one other question? Just playing devil's advocate, why does Saudi Arabia get a civilian nuclear deal but Iran doesn't get a civilian nuclear deal?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
And one more on Iran. The Vice President, JD Vance, went on this podcast with Joe Rogan yesterday, talked about Israel, in which he said…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | War / Iran 3+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 51 |
Questions
- How often is “War / Iran 3+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “War / Iran” was said 3+ times at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 5, 2026.
- What is the probability “War / Iran 3+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘War / Iran 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/iran-or-war-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=iran%20%2F%20war%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP