Will Marco Rubio say “China / Chinese”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Marco Rubio said “China / Chinese” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 5, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 73% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 6/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 73% · n=6
- Settled
- 6/6 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of conversation; it always is. As you know, we understand -- the Chinese understand our position on that topic, we understand theirs. And I think…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 3, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 2, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 2, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 5, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Marco Rubio said “China / Chinese” at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 5, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 73%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP