Will Marco Rubio say “Ceasefire”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Ceasefire” at 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (36%), most recently on Jun 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
Ceasefire
- Probability
- 35% · n=11
- Settled
- 4/11 (36%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…talk, so that progress can be made on some sort of permanent cease fire that isn't constantly spoiled by Hezbollah and by Hezbollah violence. Right…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Ceasefire |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ceasefire |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 13, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 5, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “Ceasefire”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Ceasefire” at 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (36%), most recently on Jun 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “Ceasefire” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP