Will Marco Rubio say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Iran / Iranian” at 7 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 5, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 74% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 7/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 74% · n=7
- Settled
- 7/7 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the Gulf and left for dead, in the Persian Gulf, by this Iranian regime. You know, for more than two months now, these innocent sailors…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 13, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 5, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 58 |
Questions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Iran / Iranian” at 7 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 5, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 74%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP