Donald Trump: Interview, May 16, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Baier interview on May 16?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | Yes | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Apple | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deal 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Port | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Syria | Yes | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Reagan | Yes | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Judge | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ripped / Ripping | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Marco | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Erdogan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mike / Johnson | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 5+ times | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=89 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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