Will Donald Trump say “Democrat Shutdown”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Democrat Shutdown” at 6 of 13 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (46%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Democrat Shutdown
- Probability
- 40% · n=13
- Settled
- 6/13 (46%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Democrat shutdown | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Democrat Shutdown | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Democrat Shutdown”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Democrat Shutdown” at 6 of 13 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (46%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Democrat Shutdown” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Democrat Shutdown’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/democrat-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=democrat%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP