Will Scott Bessent say “China”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “China” at 7 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025 (70%), most recently on Mar 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
China
- Probability
- 55% · n=10
- Settled
- 7/10 (70%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…US is the AI leader in the world; we're an AI superpower. China is second, they are trailing substantially. We want to make sure that…
…on sanctions. Iran used to be the largest state sponsor of terrorism. China was purchasing more than 90% of their oil, which was about 8%…
…over time we will see that the Chinese tariffs are unsustainable for China. I've seen some very large numbers over the past few days that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | China |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 7, 2026 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 21, 2026 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 14, 2026 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 22, 2026 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 21, 2026 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 8, 2025 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 4, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 15, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “China” at 7 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025 (70%), most recently on Mar 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “China” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP