Jared Isaacman: Remarks, Jun 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Jared Isaacman say during the NASA Moon Base Update?
Markets
17 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISS / International Space Station | Yes | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mars | Yes | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Apollo | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Artemis 3 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blue Origin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Space Force | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Budget | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crater | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Houston | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26JUN30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP