Will Jared Isaacman say “Crater”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jared Isaacman said “Crater” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 11, 2026 (25%), most recently on May 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Apr 5, 2026 – Jul 5, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jared Isaacman
Crater
- Probability
- 46% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jared Isaacman say “Crater”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jared Isaacman said “Crater” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 11, 2026 (25%), most recently on May 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Jared Isaacman says “Crater” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jared Isaacman: ‘Crater’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jared-isaacman/words/crater (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jared-isaacman&word=crater · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jared-isaacman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP