Will Gavin Newsom say “2028 / Campaign”?

As of Oct 27, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “2028 / Campaign” at 6 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 6, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.

44%from settlement history only · n=18counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=2028%20%2F%20campaign

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Gavin Newsom

2028 / Campaign

Probability
44% · n=18
Settled
6/18 (33%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Gavin Newsom say during his CA election announcement? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during the CAP IDEAS Conference? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his revised budget plan? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his Earth Day announcement? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his behavioral health announcement? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his announcement on homelessness? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his MS NOW interview? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his book tour discussion? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 18 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 27, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiYes
May 19, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiYes
May 14, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiYes
Apr 22, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Apr 2, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Mar 25, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Mar 11, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiYes
Mar 3, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Feb 26, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiYes
Feb 25, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Feb 23, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiYes
Feb 21, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Feb 20, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Feb 11, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Jan 23, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Jan 17, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Jan 9, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo
Jan 6, 20262028 / CampaignKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Gavin Newsom say “2028 / Campaign”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “2028 / Campaign” at 6 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 6, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 27, 2026.
What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “2028 / Campaign” next time?
44%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘2028 / Campaign’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/2028-or-campaign (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=2028%20%2F%20campaign · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP