Will “Win” be said on MrBeast next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Win” was said on MrBeast at 12 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 15, 2025 (80%), most recently on Apr 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 72% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
MrBeast
Win
- Probability
- 72% · n=15
- Settled
- 12/15 (80%)
- Last 6 episodes
- said in 2 of 5 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Win |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Win | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Win | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Win | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Win | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Win” said on MrBeast?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Win” was said on MrBeast at 12 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 15, 2025 (80%), most recently on Apr 4, 2026.
- What is the probability “Win” is said on MrBeast next time?
- 72%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “MrBeast: ‘Win’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/mrbeast/words/win (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mrbeast&word=win · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mrbeast&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP