MrBeast: Episode, Dec 6, 2025
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next Youtube Video?
Markets
18 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time | Yes | 83%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Million | Yes | 73%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Win | Yes | 68%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Speed | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Beast | Yes | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | Yes | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Contestant | Yes | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Elimination | Yes | 22%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Money | No | 65%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Subscribe | No | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Surprise | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Feastable | No | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Survive | No | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Week | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Camera | No | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Insane | No | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Charity | No | 15%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-25DEC30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP