MrBeast: Episode, Oct 12, 2025
Kalshi What will MrBeast say during his next Youtube Video?
Markets
22 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Challenge | Yes | 74%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 74%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Time | Yes | 74%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Win | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Million | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Subscribe | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Feastable | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Game | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Speed | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Week | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prize | No | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| House | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beast | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Camera | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Insane | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Survive | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Available | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Explore | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Contestant | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Charity | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elimination | No | 23%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMRBEASTMENTION-25NOV01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP